A disaster will occur with a 90 percent probability, according to the co-authors of the article – Dr. Gerardo Aquino from the Alan Turing Institute in London and Professor Mauro Bologna from the Department of electronic engineering at the University of Tarapaca in Chile.
Both scientists are theoretical physicists in their main specialty, but they work at the intersection of many Sciences. Dr. Aquino, for example, has conducted research in the biological physics groups at Imperial College, the max Planck Institute for complex systems, and the mathematical biology group at the University of Surrey, and is currently modeling complex political, economic, and cultural systems to predict conflicts.
Scientists estimate that the chances of a civilization avoiding a catastrophic collapse are low – 10 percent with the most optimistic development of events. Their model shows that population growth will soon reach the maximum, undermined by the depletion of forests. Then comes the rapid collapse or even extinction of mankind.
